President Donald Trump’s signature legislative push, the ambitiously named “One Big Beautiful Bill,” is teetering on the edge as public opinion sours and Senate Republicans scramble to salvage it. With a July 4 deadline looming, the bill—packed with tax cuts, Medicaid slashing, and spending tweaks—is facing a firestorm of skepticism from voters and a tightrope walk in Congress. Here’s why this blockbuster proposal is struggling to win hearts and minds.
A Public Opinion Wipeout
Trump’s promise of an economic “golden age” isn’t resonating. Five fresh polls paint a grim picture: Americans, across party lines, age groups, and income brackets, are giving the bill a collective thumbs-down. The House-passed version, now under Senate revision, extends Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, zeros out taxes on tips and overtime, and slashes Medicaid funding—a mix that’s proving toxic.
- Fox News: Only 38% of voters back the bill, with 59% opposed. Independents reject it 73%-22%, and even Trump’s core base—white men without college degrees—leans against it 53%-43%.
- Quinnipiac: A mere 27% support it, 53% oppose, and 20% are undecided. Independents? A brutal 57%-20% disapproval.
- KFF: Just 35% view the bill favorably, while 64% don’t. Only 27% of independents are on board.
- Pew Research: 29% favor it, 49% oppose, and 54% predict a “mostly negative” impact on the country.
- Washington Post-Ipsos: A paltry 23% support the “budget bill,” with 42% against and 34% unsure.
The numbers don’t lie: this isn’t the “beautiful” win Trump envisioned. His Truth Social boast that the bill will “grow the economy like never before” feels like a sales pitch falling flat.
Why the Backlash?
Dig into the details, and the bill’s unpopularity comes into focus. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects it will balloon the national debt by $2.4 trillion over a decade—a tough sell when 28% of Americans, per an NBC News poll, prioritize reducing the debt. Meanwhile, 51% want to protect spending on programs like Medicaid, which the bill guts through work requirements and stricter eligibility rules. The CBO estimates over 10 million could lose health coverage, a dealbreaker for 63% of voters in the Post-Ipsos survey, who called such losses “unacceptable.”
Some parts of the bill have traction—52% support Medicaid work requirements, and 49% like extending the 2017 tax cuts for all incomes. But the shine fades when voters learn the cuts heavily favor those earning over $400,000 (49%-30% opposition) or that rural hospitals could lose funding, a concern flagged by Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.). “They cannot defund rural hospitals,” Hawley warned, highlighting a provision taxing providers that’s alienating key GOP senators.
Senate Showdown and House Hurdles
Senate GOP leaders are racing to tweak the House bill, eyeing a vote this week. But with only three defections allowed (assuming Democrats unanimously oppose it), the path is narrow. Changes include deeper Medicaid cuts and softer reductions to clean energy funding, but the core structure—tax cuts paired with spending slashes—remains. The Senate’s use of budget reconciliation bypasses the 60-vote filibuster, sidelining Democrats, but some provisions, like SNAP cuts and court injunction limits, were axed by the parliamentarian for violating reconciliation rules.
Even if the Senate passes it, the House looms as a battleground. Republicans’ slim majority there is fractured. Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) slammed the bill’s “backsliding” on green energy subsidy cuts, vowing to vote no. House Republicans from high-tax states are livid over a slashed $10,000 cap on state and local tax deductions—a nonstarter for their votes. The bill’s final version must ping-pong back to the House, where any misstep could doom it.
Democrats Smell Blood
Democrats are licking their chops, planning to weaponize the bill’s unpopularity in the 2026 midterms. “The Big, Ugly Bill is wildly unpopular, and moderate House Republicans know their vote for it could cost them the majority,” said Justin Chermol of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. With voters prioritizing Medicaid over tax breaks (47% want increased Medicaid spending, per Quinnipiac), Democrats see a chance to flip the narrative on GOP fiscal priorities.
Can Trump Turn the Tide?
Trump’s all-in push for the bill—his “beautiful” vision of economic growth—faces a reality check. The Senate’s revisions may not be enough to win over wary Republicans, and the House’s demands could unravel the deal. Public opinion, meanwhile, is a brick wall: independents, a critical swing group, are overwhelmingly against it. As the July 4 deadline nears, the question isn’t just whether the bill will pass—it’s whether Trump’s gamble will cost the GOP more than it gains.
What do you think of the “Big, Beautiful Bill”? Will it spark an economic boom or bust? Share your take as this drama heads to a Senate showdown!
